Win Some Lose Some

Playing Correct Poker Pot Odds

I was playing my normal ten seater tournament and was fresh out of luck after hitting nothing with any of the premuim hands or bluffs I had made so far. There were still ten players, I had made no silly mistakes and I was sitting there with 495 in chips (from 800) with the blinds in their second level at 15/30.

I look down to see A4 suited of spades. There are already five people in the pot so I flat call. The board comes down 5s-Jc-7s, giving me the nut flush draw.

There is 240 in the pot so far and the first guy bets 120. Now I’m thinking “There goes my odds!” but then the 2nd calls and the third. Now I’m actually getting my 5:1 pot odds that I need to call. To be more accurate I can even call with only 2.5:1 here as there are two more cards to come, but I like to get better odds where I can.

I call the 120, as does the guy after me! So now there is 840 in the pot.

The turn comes 3d. No real help to me, however it does give me a gutshot straight as well.

The first guy bets out 180, and the 2nd raises to 360! Just the three of us left in it now. This is where the decision comes in!

I have 345 chips left, and by calling this bet I am all in. I do have the correct odds to call?

Let’s look at the evidence:

  • 840 in pot already + 180 bet + 360 bet = 1380 to my call of 345 which is dead on 4-1
  • I have 12 outs:
    • Nine diamonds
    • Three 6′s (not four as I have already counted the six of diamonds in the line above)
  • Calculation to work out odds of next card hitting – Number of Outs × 2 + 2
  • Outs: 12 × 2 = 24. Plus 2 = 26. That makes 26% which is just over 4-1

Bear in mind that I also have implied odds from the 1st guy who bet the 180, calling the raise.

By the time the betting gets back round to the 1st guy who bet the 180 there is 1725 in the pot, giving him odds of over 9.5-1. To be still in the pot he must have something like Ace Jack, giving him top pair, or possibly even be sitting on 2 pair. If he has AJ then his odds of getting any Jack to get trips or any Ace to get 2 pair are:

  • 2 jacks left and 3 aces left, that’s 5 outs. 5 × 2 + 2 = 12% or 8-1

If he’s sitting on 2 pair say J7 and hoping to get a full house then his odds are:

  • 2 Jacks left and 2 sevens left, that’s 4 outs. 4 × 2 + 2 = 10% or 10-1 – worth a call

I ended up calling this and the river came the 9 of clubs giving me just Ace High. The guy who raised it to 360 had Trip Sevens and so took the pot knocking me out in 10th place.

I played the correct odds all the way through and didn’t make it – so as the title says; you win some, you lose some. However the part that I’m not so sure about and will be interested to hear what you would do, is that just before I call the all in bet of 345 I have well over eleven times the big blind and so I could lay it down and then build back up from there, but how gutted would I be if I would have hit it and the guy turns over trip sevens?!

Would I have done any better trying to work it back up from 345? Technically I wasn’t even pot committed as I still had plenty of chips in relation to the blinds.

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